Decision making

Q. Judging things on the basis of how they look, often but not always, lead to correct decisions. Elaborate and explain its reasons citing research evidences in support 15 marks

Model answer Hints :
We often make judgements about things on the basis of how they look, without considering their deeper characteristics. We also judge “what or who is this ” on the basis of its looks. This is a natural tendency which is so compelling that we often ignore its statistical probability.
Statistically, base rate or relative frequency of the item in the population sometimes could be more important than the mere appearance. If, for instance, in a group of students in a class , a student by her  appearance may resembles the prototype of professor, and  a new visitor might judge her to be a professor, but statistical probability of this would be almost zero.
This happens partly because of our natural tendency of judging quickly without much analysis and partly because of lack experience and training. Trained people, studies reveal, also count the relative frequency while taking decisions. ( Khaneman & Teversky).
Moreover, ignorance of sample size is often seen in judgment. The principle of large number says , everything being equal, “the larger the sample size, larger the probability of any incident “. But when asked, where ( small or big cities) is the probability of higher frequency of the days when  traffic challan went up to 80%,. most people answer – smaller cities. The statistically, the correct answer is larger cities.
Likewise, conjuction fallacy is also a factor in such situations. Statistically, the probability of occurring two independent incidents simultaneously can not be higher than the sum total of their individual probability.
But research studies show that appearance or face information sometimes is so compelling we overlook other factors . What is the probability that a  girl who is waiting for Rajdhani express on the new Delhi railway station, is a mechanical engineer, votes in every election, donates blood regularly etc.. People would often judge at least two traits like what has been reported out of Khaneman and Teversky’ studies. But it’s statistically less likely.
# You should elaborate these points adequately. Most students didn’t answer this question well.